Project number: 16-16549S
Project title: Soil moisture and runoff droughts in a changing climate
Project coordinator: FES CZU
Project partners: Ústav výzkumu globální změny AVČR v. v. i.
Project leader: doc. Ing. Martin Hanel, Ph.D.
Project schedule: 2016-2019
Total project budget of FES CZU: 6 145 ths. CZK (of which FES 3 120 ths. CZK)
Projected increase in temperature together with changes in amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation implies change in characteristics of droughts. The significance of impact in different sectors (e.g. agriculture, water supply) relates to changes at various temporal scales, e.g. spring drought has much larger impact on agriculture than winter drought, water supply might not be threatened by single seasonal drought, while a series of dry years might result in serious shortage. In the project an ensemble of climate model simulations is used to assess the extent to which the climate models and standard bias correction methods are capable of representing observed characteristics of droughts at a range of temporal scales. The links to atmospheric circulation are considered as well as multiple methods/models for defining drought events. A non-stationary regional extreme-value model for drought characteristics will be developed in order to summarize the biases and changes. Finally, the sources of biases and drivers of changes will be quantified using variance decomposition methods.