Název projektu: Emerging off-season heat waves in Europe
Registrační číslo projektu: 26-22280S
Poskytovatel: Grantová agentura ČR
Program: Standardní projekty
Koordinátor projektu: Ústav fyziky atmosféry AV ČR, v.v.i.
Spoluřešitel: Česká zemědělská univerzita v Praze – Fakulta životního prostředí
Řešitel za FŽP: doc. RNDr. Jan Kyselý, Ph.D.
Kontaktní osoba a administrace projektu: Ing. Petr Bašta
Doba trvání: 01/2026–12/2028
Celkový rozpočet projektu: 10 276 000 Kč
Rozpočet projektu FŽP: 4 239 000 Kč
Anotace:
The project is motivated by recent occurrences of heat waves far outside their usual season, such as the 2024 early April heat wave in Central Europe. We propose to explore a novel concept of off-season heat waves defined based on two principal criteria: i) temperatures exceed thresholds for a summertime heat wave for several consecutive days and ii) the event falls outside the usual heat wave season. By analysing observed datasets and the ERA5 reanalysis, we will advance understanding of spatiotemporal characteristics of off-season heat waves across Europe, including their vertical structures and mechanisms of their onset, persistence, and termination. In the next step, we will evaluate off-season heat waves in regional climate model simulations to identify models’ abilities to reproduce such events. Because climate change adaptation strategies lack information on future off-season heat waves, we will subsequently combine probabilistic and event-based storylines approaches to deliver comprehensible scenarios of these events for near future and the end of the 21st century.