Extreme droughts will be up to seven times more common in Central Europe if greenhouse gas emissions increase significantly
A scientific team from the FES and the Helmholtz Center for the Environment (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany, examined the characteristics of the drought in 2018–2019 using long-term climate data from 1766 to 2019. These were two of the three warmest summer seasons that people have ever measured. More than half of Central Europe has been hit by a severe drought, making it the largest two-year drought in more than 250 years of history. A study published in the Scientific Reports expects the frequency of severe two-year droughts to multiply by the end of the century. "If we stop greenhouse gas emissions, climate models assume that the number of these periods will be up to 90% lower in the second half of the century than with a significant increase in greenhouse gas concentrations," said one of the authors Martin Hanel.
The publication was actively promoted as “Nature Research Highlight”.
In media (selection):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8600205/Europe-suffer-SEVEN-FOLD-increase-number-extreme-droughts-2100-study-warns.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/06/co2-extreme-droughts-in-central-europe-likely-to-increase-seven-fold
https://www.dw.com/en/central-europe-to-face-extreme-droughts-without-climate-action/a-54471460
https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/pokud-se-podari-narust-emisi-zastavit-snizi-se-sucho-o-90-pr/r~b2c94b80e6c111ea8b230cc47ab5f122/
http://www.czpravy.cz/pokud-se-podari-narust-emisi-zastavit-snizi-se-sucho-o-90-procent-vyplyva-z-vyzkumu-74208.html
https://www.lidovky.cz/relax/veda/narust-emisi-zvysi-cetnost-dvouletych-such-varuji-vedci.A200825_145725_ln_veda_ape
https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/veda/3168957-cim-vice-emisi-tim-horsi-budou-sucha-v-cesku-spocitali-vedci
http://www.enviweb.cz/rss/225317
https://globe24.cz/domov/alarmujici-zjisteni-ceskych-vedcu-co-zpusobi-sklenikove-plyny-ve-stredni-evrope.d55235ff
Citation:
Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Hanel, M., & Kumar, R. (2020). Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 Central European drought under global warming. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9