A large international study shows that heat prevention plans significantly reduce deaths during extreme heat events across Europe. The study analysed daily temperature and mortality data from 102 locations in 14 European countries over nearly three decades. The research led by Aleš Urban (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague) and Veronika Huber (Donana Biological StationCSIC), and based on international collaboration with experts from The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), MCC Collaborative Research Network, COST Action PROCLIAS, and HORIZON EU project CROSSEU, was published in Environmental Research Letters.
The authors assessed how heat-related mortality changed after the introduction of national and regional heat prevention plans, which typically include early warning systems, public communication, protection of vulnerable populations and adaptations in healthcare services.
“Our results provide clear evidence that heat prevention plans are effective public health tools,” said lead author Aleš Urban. “On average, we observed a reduction of more than 25% in excess mortality during extreme heat after these plans were implemented.”
According to the study, this reduction corresponds to approximately 1.8 avoided deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year, amounting to over 14,000 lives saved across the analysed regions.
Antonio Gasparrini, Professor of Biostatistics at LSHTM and senior author on the study, said: “Our study, based on state-of-the-art methods and a large multi-country database, provides the strongest evidence so far about the effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing health impacts”.
Climate change is causing an escalation of heat stress. This study demonstrates that actions and policy interventions can help adapt to this increasing threat. However, as climate continues to warm, populations might reach the limits of adaptation, hence the need to keep monitoring the effectiveness of heat prevention plans over time.
“With climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, our findings highlight the importance of making heat prevention plans a core component of climate adaptation strategies across Europe,” added co-author Veronika Huber.
Reference: Urban A, Huber V, Henry S, Plaza N P, Tušlová L, Dasgupta S, Masselot P, Cvijanovic I, Mistry M, Pascal M, De’Donato F K, Di Napoli C, Gosling S N, Kohnova S, Kysely J, Lüthi S, Pau L-F, Ragettli M S, Ruuhela R, Ryti N, Silva S P, Zemah Shamir S, Thiery W, Vicedo-Cabrera A M, Wieczorek J, Sera F, Armstrong B & Gasparrini A (2025) The effectiveness of heat prevention plans in reducing heat-related mortality across Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 124071.DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae2775